The Hype Cycle, Vol. 3

I apologize for this edition coming so late… a camping trip with my oldest child took precedence. As a bonus, I added a bit more.

Three Things, My Thoughts.

Some topics from this week - with my own 🔥 (or 🥶) takes:

AI Enters the Great Data Debate

Two things were inevitable with the rise of generative AI: eventually, these companies would run out of data to use, and in doing so they’d skirt ethics and rules to suck up as much data as possible. The platforms are claiming they are protected by the “fair use” doctrine concerning copyright media. While they may have some legal air cover, it’s easy to see sketchy ethics being employed. The New York Times recently published a damning article about how these companies have violated terms of service of platforms such as YouTube to “scrape” data from them. If you’re OpenAI, that’s a big no-no… but Google was doing it too, so how mad can the Alphabet brand be? This is going to be a complex conflict that will wind its way through the courts. OpenAI has already been sued multiple times (including by the aforementioned Times).

MY TAKE: This reminds me a lot of the iTunes era of music commercialization. I believe after many rounds in court, the endgame will involve licensing agreements. The AI companies will need to negotiate with copyright holders - particularly the big boys - as it’s hard to see how this type of data collection qualifies for “fair use” under the legal standard. How this affects smaller copyright holders downstream, though, will be worth watching. Not everyone has the resources of an entity like The New York Times. Where lines will be drawn - and whether users will care - will be fascinating.

CeraVe Keeps Coming with Comedy

The skincare brand showed up at the Super Bowl with a pretty clever, quirky commercial featuring actor Michael Cera. It was one of the most talked-about and well-liked moments of advertising during the big game. Now, the L’Oreal-owned brand has released a trailer for a new rom-com, “The One Under the Sun.” The twist is that the star is their product.

MY TAKE: There’s one comment on the video’s YouTube profile, that this video is “unhinged.” Maybe - but it’s sure to collect attention. Few human truths are as universal as our desire to laugh. If CeraVe can keep the momentum with, dare I say, an actual full-length story… they might have something here. Time is precious, therefore attention is priceless.

Snap Steps Up with Snowflake

Privacy and ROI continue to be hot topics amongst marketers. Cookies will be going away (though maybe not as soon as thought - again) and brands will need safe, secure ways to invest and measure the right signals. Snap has partnered with Snowflake to build ‘clean rooms’ where companies can share consumer data securely via Snowflake’s tech and optimize campaigns utilizing Snap’s conversions API.

MY TAKE: I am still bullish on Snap. The stock is down, but this company occupies a niche in social media centered around AR. It’s also staying sticky with younger audiences. They have been one of the first social networks to roll out user-based AI and subscriptions. Their biggest hurdle has been convincing marketers to move dollars from Meta and Google (and lately TikTok). Offering more direct measurement and 1P data usage could help them ramp up.

Two Good Resources.

I found a couple of recent 📖🎧📺 I found to be particularly good:

Bits of Wonder: a great Substack for reading and understanding elements of being human, socialization, and taking a look at the bigger picture in life. The author does a great job of bringing focus to things we miss amidst the hustle-and-bustle of modern life. I rarely miss an article.

Disagree With Me: There are a lot of fun, interesting apps in OpenAI’s GPT library. This one is one of my favorites. You can ask it to give you the contrarian take on a topic, and it does a pretty good job of providing you with a thought-provoking response. We all live in bubbles whether we can admit it or not, and venturing outside of our bubbles is both good and necessary.

One Great Quote.

I leave with you some words of wisdom:

“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness.”

• Mark Twain

Encore: Music Playlist

Since I am delinquent on delivering this week’s edition, please enjoy some of my favorite songs of the moment. I hope it gives you good vibes!